Coin price cycles

[tjaart]

Hi all,

As I was looking through yet another online auction with some very high starting prices and I was wondering if any one has any idea or gut feeling on the price cycle time for ancient coin prices. I read on one or two other forums that ancient coin prices go through cycles and were wondering what you think about it? Are these cycles measured in month/years or even decades? Since about March last year ancient coin prices has been through the roof and I am wondering if I should try to buy some now while there are a lot of good (and rare) examples being offered, or wait a year or so when the prices have dropped a bit (and potentially fewer interesting examples being offered).

Any opinions/insights/wisdom to share?

Thanks!
Tjaart

[Victor]

I think the prices depend a lot on which auctions you are looking at. Some auctions almost always get high prices. Plus, ancient coin prices have been increasing over the years because of accessibility. It's super easy now to look for coins; when I first started, you had to buy books or go to the library to read about ancient coins. Now there are online forums and facebook groups and twitter posts etc. etc. These internet assets raise awareness, and then prices go up as the buyers increase. Even 15 years ago on eBay, I was able to buy so much stuff with little competition, but not so much anymore. The irony is that forums that are meant to bring people together also create the competition for coins.

[tjaart]

Thanks for the comments, Victor. I've been collecting for about 10 years now and on the ebay front I have to agree. I use to be able to pick up good campgates for around EUR30-50, the same for potin tetradrachms. Lately however, campgates on ebay are in the EUR60-120 range. I also agree that during the last few years I have started looking at more established auction houses as well and that might account for my bias. Another factor might be that as my collection grows, I start to think more about the quality or rarity of a coin and thus if something rare comes up, I notice it more.

But I guess as with any hobby, the longer you are in it, the more expensive the toys become :-D